Even though I incorporate incoming players' stats into the formula, the extreme rise in transfers is dragging down returning production averages pretty significantly. A quick example shows you why: If your starting quarterback returns, you might return close to 100% of your passing yardage from last season. But if you lost a 3,000-yard passer and brought in someone else's 3,000-yard passer, that means you return only 50% of yardage -- 3,000 divided by (3,000 + 3,000).
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